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Thursday, September 16, 2010

Options Trading: The Bear Put Spread

A bear put spread is a mid-term options trading strategy that entails purchasing and writing of two put options. This spread has the advantage of lowering the cost of the initial investment as well as defining a set maximum loss and maximum profit amount. Compared to buying only one put, which could lose and gain value dramatically overnight, a bear put spread also provides greater price stability throughout the life of the spread.

For example, let’s say you are bearish on the major S&P 500 index, and it is trading around 1150. A bear put spread would be the buying of the lower exercise price put and the writing of the higher exercise price put, which could be 1050 and 1150. If the cost of the spread is $5,000, that will be the maximum loss amount, where the maximum profit would be the difference between the two exercise prices (1150 - 1050 = 100 points). If every point is valued at $50, the maximum profit in dollars is $5,000 (100 x $50). The goal for you, the investor, is to find the S&P 500 reach 1050 or lower at the expiration date in order to maximize the profit on the bear put spread.

In the meantime, since time has a lot to do with options value, the markets may go in your favor, but there may be a lot of time until exercise still left with the options. This scenario is undesirable because the markets have moved in your favor, yet you cannot be fully rewarded with the bear put spread if there is a lot of time left before exercise.

With bear put spreads (as well as with bull call spreads, which are the same idea but used for the opposite market direction), either the market is to your advantage or time is--but both are never in your favor.

Therefore, when executed correctly, the bear put spread is a medium term strategy (4 months to a year until exercise) that speculates a delayed drop in the market. In other words, if there is speculation of an imminent decline within a month or less, it would be best to simply buy a put rather than execute the bear put spread.

If you have experience with options, then you know there are many factors in considering the price of options and what to expect in owning that investment. If you are not familiar with options, these are the main factors to consider:
  • Exercise price
  • Time until exercise
  • Volatility
The exercise price for a put option is the price at which the option holder has the right to sell the stock or investment. Time until exercise is the time you have for the option to retain its value, since options are depreciating assets with a set exercise date. Volatility is the daily swings in the price of the underlying investment. The greater the volatility, the more premium or higher price you will pay for the option, and vice versa.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

5 Gold Trends that Point to Higher Future Prices

As pricey as gold futures may seem, it has yet to reach its peak according to many experts. The five main trends for higher prices in gold are fundamental, but be sure to research the technical factors driving prices as well. Also, be cautious to wait for the best buying opportunity because there is a great deal of volatility in gold prices.



Monday, September 13, 2010

Gold futures versus Gold ETFs

With the sheer amount of volume and elevated price levels in gold, it may be one of the best times to start trading in gold futures or gold ETFs. Except with there being so many options it’s hard to know which to choose. There are clear pros and cons in specific performance criteria to both futures and exchange traded funds including the following: physical ownership, leverage, and tracking error. Essentially, if you want to invest in gold like stocks it’s best to buy gold ETF shares, but if you want to trade gold, stick to trading gold futures.

Investability
If you desire to invest in gold for a specific time horizon beyond a couple of years your best bet will be to invest in gold ETF shares (symbol:GLD). Also consider this; if you wish to receive physical gold bars it is much easier to do so by investing in gold futures. Once you lock in a futures price and take physical delivery you are given a receipt of ownership of a serial gold bar, you will have rights of ownership to one gold bar (100 troy oz.) for each contract that you bought and your gold bars will be held in a safe gold depository.
 
  • Leverage: Most new investors who are looking at gold as a potential money maker will opt to buy the exchange traded fund because it is not nearly as volatile as gold futures.
  • Each dollar change in COMEX gold equals $100 change in one futures contract (100 oz.)
  • That same change equals $4 change in a GLD portfolio (4 oz.)        
With that said it's easy to see why the gold ETF is easier to hold on to for the long haul. Nonetheless, if you choose to buy gold to obtain physical ownership or you want to reap mega returns on your portfolio from trading, gold futures are the way to go. 
                                                                                                                                     
Tracking error
This tracking error can be defined as the fund’s inability to match COMEX gold prices one for one all the time. Because of lack of liquidity and other intrinsic factors related to the market’s economics, tracking error should be considered as a reason to choose trading full futures contracts which are tied to COMEX gold. For the ETF the fund may trade at a discount to COMEX gold or at a premium depending on the near term sentiment of market participants. However, this tracking error should not be great and usually is very minimal due to the large amount of liquidity for gold shares.